Nigeria is witnessing a rare decline in food prices after months of relentless inflation. Prices of key staples such as maize, beans, rice, cassava and yam are moderating, offering temporary relief to households whose budgets have been stretched thin.
But beneath this relief lies a troubling reality: the very harvest that eased consumers’ burden is deepening hardship for the farmers who produced the food. What should be a season of reward has become a period of loss, anxiety, and economic setback across the agricultural sector.
A Paradox in Nigeria’s Food Economy
Ordinarily, falling food prices should encourage increased consumption and boost farmers’ sales. But the Nigerian situation defies economic logic. Prices are dropping, yet demand remains weak a sign of how deeply poverty has eaten into households’ purchasing power.
Many Nigerians have seen their incomes shrink due to inflation, fuel subsidy removal, weak job markets, and rising living costs. The result is what economists describe as non-responsive or inelastic demand: even when food becomes cheaper, people still cannot afford to buy more.
Simon Samson, chief economist at ARKK Economics and Data Limited, said the muted demand despite lower prices “demonstrates entrenched structural poverty,” adding that households now operate on “shoestring budgets” with “no fiscal space” left for additional consumption.
This means that while market prices are softening, hunger is not necessarily reducing and farmers are feeling the impact.
Low Prices, High Costs: Farmers Caught in a Losing Battle
Across local markets and farming communities, farmers say the sudden price slump is wiping out their profits and threatening next year’s planting season. Their challenges are rooted in the high cost of production.
The past year has seen sharp increases in the prices of:
Fertiliser
Fuel and diesel
Agrochemicals
Labour
Transportation
Storage and market levies
Many farmers borrowed heavily to meet these rising costs. Now, they are selling their produce at prices far below what they spent on cultivation.
“When farmers or indeed any producer cannot recover their production costs, this affects the value chain and the entire economy,” Samson explained.
He warns that ongoing losses could discourage farmers from planting next season, leading to a drop in output and a likely return of high food prices.
For many farmers, the worry goes beyond immediate losses it is about the future viability of farming itself.
A System Failing Farmers: The Hidden Crisis in Storage and Infrastructure
Beyond weak purchasing power, Nigeria’s post-harvest infrastructure gap is intensifying farmers’ struggles. Nearly 40 percent of the food the country produces annually is lost due to inadequate storage, according to the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA).
The country is critically short of:
Cold rooms
Refrigerated trucks
Processing facilities
Modern dry-storage systems
Rural logistics networks
OTACCWA estimates Nigeria needs at least 5,000 cold trucks and 100 cold rooms with 500-tonne capacity each to substantially cut the nation’s estimated ₦3.5 trillion annual post-harvest losses.
Without proper storage, produce floods the market during harvest seasons, dragging prices even lower and forcing farmers into distress sales. What cannot be sold quickly often spoils.
Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner at Prasino Farms, said:
“Most of our produce depends on rain-fed farming, so during the harvest season there’s oversupply. Without storage or processing factories, much of it gets wasted.”
For perishable crops — vegetables, tomatoes, fruits, and fish — the situation is even more severe. Ibrahim Kabiru, former president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), described poor cold storage as a “major threat to achieving food sufficiency.”
Behind these losses is an emotional toll on farmers who invest months of labour and resources only to watch their produce rot due to a broken system.
The Risk of a Bigger Crisis Ahead
Experts warn that if the trend continues, Nigeria could enter a dangerous cycle:
Farmers lose money this year
They scale back planting next year
Food production drops
Prices shoot up again
Hunger and inflation worsen
The relief consumers currently feel could be short-lived. Nigeria may be sowing the seeds of future food insecurity.
What Experts Say Must Be Done
Economists argue that stabilising Nigeria’s food system requires supporting both consumers and producers, as their fortunes are interconnected.
Some of the key policy measures recommended include:
- Low-interest credit for farmers and consumers
To boost production and increase purchasing power.
- Investment in cold-chain and storage infrastructure
Cold rooms, refrigerated trucks, and processing hubs across major farming zones.
- Market intervention by government
Purchasing surplus produce during harvest and releasing it during scarce periods.
- Expansion of irrigation systems
To reduce overreliance on rain-fed farming and minimise seasonal oversupply.
- Strengthening farmer cooperatives
To improve bargaining power, access to financing, and collective storage.
According to Samson, “Strengthening purchasing power of consumers would mean improved sales for farmers,” adding that investment in agriculture and market interventions are essential to break the cycle of recurrent food crises.
Conclusion
Nigeria is currently experiencing a delicate and deceptive calm in its food market. Prices are falling, but the relief is fragile. Farmers — the backbone of the food system — are struggling more than ever.
The unfolding situation underscores a troubling paradox:
bumper harvests alongside farmer distress; falling prices alongside rising hunger; improved macroeconomic figures alongside deeper poverty.
Unless Nigeria addresses structural problems — weak incomes, inadequate storage, high production costs, and limited market support — the country will continue to swing between temporary relief and recurring food emergencies.
